The San Francisco Giants have agreed to sign left-handed starting pitcher Sean Manaea to a two-year, $25 million deal with an opt-out clause after the 2023 season, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Manaea, 30, was 8-9 with a 4.96 ERA (75 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP and 156 strikeouts in 158 innings in 30 appearances with the Padres last season. He did some decent-to-good work at times in the early going, albeit on an inconsistent basis, but he fell apart in the second half, pitching to a 6.56 ERA in the season's final two months.
Maybe a return to the Bay Area will serve Manaea well? He spent the first six years of his MLB career with the A's. In his time there, he was 50-41 with a 3.86 ERA (107 ERA+), averaging 3.3 WAR per 162 games. That puts him squarely in mid-rotation starter territory and we have seen the Giants get the most out of some starters in recent memory, too.
Assuming the Giants are unable to bring back lefty Carlos Rodón in free agency, their rotation for the 2023 season might be set.
Then again, we know they have plenty of money to spend in free agency this offseason, as they've already made a significant bid on Aaron Judge. That means it's possible to use some more of the money earmarked for Judge on additional starting pitching.
For now, Manaea is returning to the Bay Area, this time on the San Francisco side.
Steve Cohen's Mets have a plan to win: Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga and an endless payroll
If there's one thing we've learned this hot stove season, it's that MLB teams have way more money than they let on. Free agent spending has already exceeded $2 billion and nearly half our top 50 free agents still have to sign. Contract projections are being blown out of the water. Everyone seems to be getting an extra year or two and several million more per year than expected.
For the second straight offseason, the New York Mets and owner Steve Cohen are at the forefront of free agent spending. That's how it should be, right? The cartoonishly rich guy buys his childhood team and pumps money into the roster because he wants to win. Cohen is an old school owner in that regard. A few too many owners seem to be in it for the profits now.
Cohen & Co. had a busy week. It started with Justin Verlander (two years and $86.6 million), continued with José Quintana (two years and $26 million), and then carried on with Brandon Nimmo (eight years and $162 million), David Robertson (one year and $10 million), and Kodai Senga (five years and $75 million). And don't forget, the Mets re-signed Edwin Díaz (five years and $102 million) a few weeks ago too.
The free agent outlay upped New York's competitive balance tax payroll to $349 million, according to FanGraphs, which would easily be the largest in baseball history. The previous record? Cohen's 2022 Mets. He spent $298.8 million on this year's team. Because they would exceed the CBT threshold for the second straight year, these are the tax rates that apply to the 2023 Mets:
$233 million to $253 million: 30 percent
$253 million to $273 million: 42 percent
$273 million to $293 million: 75 percent
Everything over $293 million: 90 percent
The Mets were already well over the $293 million threshold when they signed Robertson, so his $10 million contract comes with a $9 million tax hit, making it a $19 million outlay for a setup man. A very good setup man, but still, a setup man, and Cohen didn't blink.
That fourth CBT threshold was created last offseason specifically to reign in Cohen's spending -- it is more commonly referred to as the Cohen Tax -- but that hasn't deterred Cohen. His $349 million estimated payroll would come with a tax bill well north of $70 million tax bill -- $70 million! -- so, all-in, the Mets are looking at spending more than $420 million on their 2023 roster. Cohen hasn't blinked.
And the thing is, the Mets may not be done. It seems likely they'll add another reliever or two, with their prices dependent on which tier of the market the Mets shop from.
If necessary, the Mets have a few avenues to trim payroll. Darin Ruf (owed $3 million in 2023) is eminently replaceable, plus catcher James McCann ($12.15 million) and third baseman Eduardo Escobar ($9.5 million) could be moved as well. That would require the Mets believing top prospects Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty, both of whom debuted in 2022, are ready for full-time duty.
It seems Cohen believes in the "once you're over the tax, there's no reason to hold back" school of thought. The Boston Red Sox, for example, exceeded the $230 million threshold by less than $5 million in 2022. What good is that? They didn't get any of the benefits of staying under (more favorable qualified free agent compensation, lower tax rates in 2023, etc.) but also didn't really add to the team either. (Because they went over the CBT threshold in 2022, the Red Sox will only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round for Xander Bogaerts. Had they stayed under, they would have received a compensation pick after the first round. Again, what's the point of going only a little over the threshold? Once you're over, you might as well keep spending.)
Not every owner can do what Cohen is doing. The San Diego Padres, for example, can spend more on payroll than they currently do (FanGraphs estimates San Diego's CBT payroll at $254.7 million), but there's a limit. Committing $400-million-plus to payroll (salaries plus tax) just isn't feasible for some.
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But so many other teams can do more than they are. They just choose not to. Look at what Baltimore Orioles GM Mike Elias said during the Winter Meetings earlier this week. I swear, this would make my blood boil if I were an O's fan. From an MLB Network Radio interview:
"We're in a little bit of a unique juncture where we're at in our curve where we've got all this internal talent. It's young, we've got it under control ... You do a long-term deal with pitching, the first year of it is likely to be the best year of the contract. So we've got to think about that. And I think our team's going to continually get better the next several years. So we've got a little bit of a curve going on that we have to navigate this year."
The Orioles have been rebuilding for five years and they improved by 31 wins in 2022, and that's how they reward fans? By saying they need to navigate an upward curve? Elias knows there are six postseason spots now, right? And that the Philadelphia Phillies went to the World Series as the No. 6 seed? So much for the expanded postseason encouraging more teams to go for it.
Baltimore's young core -- Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, etc. -- will never be cheaper than it is right now. There will never be a better time to spend, and the O's can spend in a way that doesn't damage their long-term version. We all want to believe our favorite team's young core is built for sustainable long-term success, but before you know it you're the 2019-22 Red Sox. Success is fleeting. Go for it when the opportunity presents itself.
Cohen sees the opportunity and is going for it and yeah, it is fair to wonder whether the Mets have actually improved. For all intents and purposes they've swapped Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt for Verlander and Quintana, and Adam Ottavino for Robertson.
A big payroll doesn't automatically equal big win totals. If it did, the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels wouldn't have the sport's longest postseason droughts. Spending money can improve the team though, and it undoubtedly energizes the fan base. Cohen has spent aggressively for the sole purpose of winning. It's a throwback to the days of George Steinbrenner and Mike Ilitch, and it's refreshing at a time when so many teams and owners are content to sit back and try to sell everyone on the future.
What's next for Yankees after re-signing Aaron Judge? Three more items on offseason to-do list
In the end, Aaron Judge wanted to finish his career with the New York Yankees more than join his hometown-ish San Francisco Giants. Judge has agreed to remain with the Yankees on a massive nine-year, $360 million contract. He reportedly turned down a similar offer from the Giants, and the San Diego Padres were a late entrant in the Judge sweepstakes as well.
The $360 million contract is the largest free agent contract in history, and Judge joins Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander (both $43.3 million per year) as the only players in the sport with a $40 million average annual salary. Judge rejected a seven-year extension worth $213.5 million in spring training and made himself another $146.5 million with his historic 62-homer AL MVP season.
With Judge back in the fold, the Yankees can now move on to other offseason matters. To date this winter they've re-signed Judge, re-signed Anthony Rizzo, and signed Tommy Kahnle. For all intents and purposes all they've done so far is reassemble the 2022 team. Now they have to add pieces as they look to get over the hump and win a championship with Judge.
FanGraphs estimates New York's 2023 competitive balance payroll at $266.5 million with Judge. That is in line with their franchise record $267 million payroll in 2022, so either the Yankees will raise payroll considerably next year, or they're going to salary dump players/go cheap the rest of the offseason. Either way, here are the three major items remaining on New York's hot stove to-do list.
The Yankees are set in right (Judge) and center (Harrison Bader), but left field is wide open. They started nine different players in left in 2022, including three players at least 30 times each, and they started three different players in left in their nine postseason games. One of them, Oswaldo Cabrera, is a natural infielder (Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton were the other two).
Andrew Benintendi's wrist surgery sent the Yankees into scramble mode in left field late in the season and he remains available as a free agent. The Yankees are said to have interest in a reunion. Here, according to FanGraphs projected 2023 WAR, are the top unsigned free agent outfielders:
Brandon Nimmo: 4.7 WAR
Andrew Benintendi: 2.3 WAR
Brandon Drury: 1.7 WAR
Michael Conforto: 1.6 WAR
Several tied at 1.5 WAR
Not included in that list is Japanese star Masataka Yoshida, who was posted for MLB teams earlier this week. He's a high-contact lefty bat who draws lots of walks, but has limited power and defensive skills. Otherwise Drury is a super utility guy more than an outfielder and Conforto missed 2022 with shoulder surgery, so the outfield market thins out real quick.
Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star Bryan Reynolds requested a trade earlier this week, and while the team is under no obligation to trade him, the Buccos will be overwhelmed with trade calls. The Yankees have had interest in Reynolds in the past and do again now. It'll cost a lot to get him, but quality switch-hitters with strong defensive chops and three years of control are worth acquiring.
Point is, left field is a glaring need for the Yankees right now, particularly with Hicks more likely to be salary dumped than given a starting spot in 2023 given his poor 2022 season. Ideally the Yankees would add a lefty swinger with high-end contact ability like Benintendi or Yoshida. That would address their greatest offensive need.