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Donald Tusk has secured a potential path to power in Poland, according to two election exit polls that give the former European Council president the upper hand over his rightwing rivals, the ruling Law and Justice party. Law and Justice (PiS), led by Jarosław Kaczyński, appeared to be on the brink of losing office despite winning the most votes in Sunday’s election, because according to the exit poll it would lack a majority even with a far right party as its coalition partner. If borne out in the vote count, it would mark a stunning victory for Tusk in what is Poland’s most pivotal election in a generation. The former prime minister claimed victory for the opposition, saying he has “never been happier” to have come second. PiS was estimated to have won 36.6 per cent of the vote, with 31 per cent for Tusk’s Civic Platform. Poland’s currency and stock market rallied strongly on Monday in reaction to a potential Tusk comeback. The Warsaw WIG index was up 3.5 per cent by late morning, while the zloty jumped 1.9 per cent against the euro before settling to trade 1 per cent stronger on the day at 4.49 zlotys a euro. Tusk pledged during the campaign to reposition Warsaw on a firm pro-European path, restore the independence of judges and unlock billions of euros of EU funding withheld by the European Commission in a spat with the PiS government over judicial reforms. The vote is seen as the most significant election for the EU this year, potentially redefining the relationship between Brussels and the largest member state in central and eastern Europe after years of feuding. “This is the end of bad times. This is the end of PiS rule,” Tusk said on Sunday night to cheering supporters. “We did it, for real. Poland won, democracy won.” Together with two other parties, Civic Platform is on track to secure 248 of the 460 seats in the Sejm, the lower house of Poland’s parliament, according to the latest Ipsos exit poll released on Monday morning, which confirmed the same share of seats for Tusk’s party as an initial exit poll on Sunday night. At PiS headquarters, Kaczyński told[url=https://ufa771.com/]แทงบอลสดได้เงินจริง ufabet[/url] supporters that a way still remained for his party to return to power. “Ahead of us are days of fight and various tensions,” said the ultra-conservative leader. “We must have hope and know that, regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition, we will implement this project in different ways.” Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczyński greets his supporters in Warsaw on Sunday © Czarek Sokolowski/AP If the final results match the polls, PiS will struggle to secure a third term in government because its potential coalition partner — the far right Confederation — is only expected to win 6.4 per cent of the vote, equivalent to just 14 seats. PiS is expected to be granted the first opportunity to form a government by President Andrzej Duda if results confirm that it remains the largest party in parliament. The final results of the fiercely contested election are not expected before late Monday or even Tuesday, because counting has been complicated by a referendum with two questions on immigration that PiS added to the ballot to fire up its conservative supporters. Recommended Instant InsightInstant Insight Poland’s democratic health appears better than many feared The national electoral commission began publishing partial results on Monday morning, which showed PiS securing 40.2 per cent of votes compared with 26.6 per cent for Civic Platform, with just over 10 per cent of the votes counted. But even though this preliminary lead was larger than in the exit polls, it would still not be enough for PiS to secure a majority with support from Confederation. The election could also ease recent tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv, which were sparked in large part by PiS’s re-election bid. PiS sparred with Confederation, which claimed that the government had been too generous to Ukrainian refugees, and also sought to appease its farming electorate by imposing a unilateral ban on Ukrainian grain imports earlier this year. Turnout in the parliamentary election was on track to set a record since Poland’s return to democracy, according to preliminary data from Ipsos. It put participation at almost 73 per cent, 11 percentage points higher than in the previous election in 2019. Analysts warned that the fragmented and poisonous politics of Poland made the exit polls potentially less reliable than in previous elections. Exit polls after similar elections in Slovakia two weeks ago projected the liberal opposition leader would emerge ahead, but final results put populist Robert Fico and his Smer party in the lead. “We could still have a Slovakian situation here,” said Marcin Duma, head of pollster Ibris ahead of Sunday’s vote. Government officials have also warned that pollsters may not accurately register support for their party. “We believe that we have a silent majority,” said Janusz Kowalski, deputy agriculture minister, before Sunday’s vote. “I know lots of voters who don’t want to communicate openly that they vote for Law and Justice.” Still, only 40 per cent of voters took part in the referendum, according to preliminary data, not enough to make it binding. Tusk had called for a boycott of the referendum, which asked voters questions about reinforced border security, curbing illegal migration, keeping the existing retirement age and blocking sales of state-owned companies to foreign investors.