Analysis and forecast of Chinese needle coke market
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I. Analysis of China's post-holiday needle coke market
1. Market overview
"May Day" holiday China needle coke market as a whole temporary steady running, shipment is relatively stable, at the same time, raw material price of coal tar has topped 4000 yuan by 2.01% from last week, and the market outlook is expected upward, coal needle coke cost pressures remained, downstream aspects of electric steel starts at more than 70% of the high, first graphite electrode enterprise aaa price, market transactions active, The cathode material market price is stable, the mainstream major factories are working at full load, and the downstream demand for needle coke is good. As of May 6, the market price range of cooked coke is 7,500-11,000RMB/ton; Raw coke 5000-6100 yuan/ton, imported oil needle coke mainstream transaction price raw coke 650-900 dollars/ton; Cooked coke $1400-1500 / ton; Imported coal series needle coke mainstream transaction price of $900-1300 / ton.
2. Business starts are up and supply is up
At the beginning of May, the construction of needle coke in China increased slightly, and by May 6, the construction of the market as a whole was about 51%. The construction of needle coke in Anshan has finished its maintenance, Henan Kaitan and Ansteel Chemical will also start production in May, and it is expected that the supply of needle coke in China will increase slightly in May.
3. Rising raw material prices and high costs
Slush market: During the holiday, the crude oil market is fluctuating and rising, which has certain support for the domestic oil paste market. The overall average price is 2,926 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton compared with last week. The market is full of good factors, and the oil paste price has fallen slightly after the holiday.
Coal pitch market: The raw material coal tar price is running at a high level, and the deep processing industry of tar is suffering serious losses. Under the cost pressure, coal pitch manufacturers are increasing one after another. As of May 6, the factory of modified asphalt in the main producing areas shall refer to RMB 4,000-4,450 / ton for factory negotiation, and the factory of medium-temperature asphalt shall refer to RMB 3,400-3,900 / ton for factory negotiation.
4. Downstream production is positive and demand is good
Graphite electrode after market price stabilization, as of late April its downstream of electric steel starts at more than 70% of the high, at the same time in the graphite electrode afternoon raise expectations, there are still some steel mills have stock up demand, market trading active, burning coke market is in a good ship, at the same time, the early stage of the price upward to a certain extent, also good afternoon needle coke prices; Negative material market mainstream big factory production is basically full load, at the same time, the end consumer market demand is strong, but the current needle coke coke market supply is sufficient, negative material manufacturers to purchase on demand.
Second, China's needle coke aftermarket forecast
1. Supply side
In May, needle coke enterprises, such as Anshan Kaitan, Ansteel Chemical and Henan Kaitan, have started construction plans, and the overall construction of coal-based needle coke has increased. Meanwhile, oil based needle coke enterprises are basically at full production. It is expected that the output of needle coke in May will increase slightly, with a range of about 0.5-0.8000 tons.
2. Price
Coal tar in May and slurry oil market price predicts to will remain relatively high, the cost of plane, downstream graphite electrode afternoon is expected to price upward at the same time, the anode materials also raise 2000 yuan in the prophase, positive support downstream market, the demand for good, so may we expect China's needle coke market price is still slightly raised expectations, up and down by 500 yuan.